YouTube Electrified channel host Dillon Loomis recently posted a video in which he announced that he is making a “prediction spreadsheet.” He is intent on tracking predictions made by analysts and pundits. He wants to track how accurate those predictions turn out to be.
Well, I’m going to have a go and make a few predictions of my own. Dillon, please feel free to add them to your spreadsheet, if you like. (Not that I’m an expert on anything, but I reckon I can proffer an opinion about the future as well as anyone can, provided the publicly available data.)
Tesla’s recent outstanding delivery numbers for 2021 threw a lot of people for a loop, particularly those with ties to Wall Street. Dillon pointed out that predictions made by those who can be termed “the Tesla community” came much closer to the actual delivery numbers, but even they came up short. Now people are lining up to give their predictions for 2022 deliveries.
Here is mine. Tesla will deliver at least 1.7 million vehicles in 2022.
Tesla’s annualized production rate is already at about 1.2 million. I suspect that Tesla’s past experience in ramping factories will come into play and it will accelerate the Austin and Berlin factory ramps. I do not think it a stretch to suppose that the two factories together can produce 500k vehicles in 2022 (given that the Berlin factory gets approvals and actually comes online before Q2). This is a bit of an ironic paradox (OK, I know, that isn’t a real thing I but I think you’ll get what I’m saying) because this means those two factories will add more deliveries in 2022 than Tesla sold in total in 2020.
In 2023, I predict that Tesla will deliver at least 2.3 million vehicles. The factory ramps will continue to be fleshed out, but there will be shrinking headroom for growth. The exception to this will be if Tesla greatly expands capacity at the two factories. Otherwise, the only way for Tesla to keep growing will be to build more factories.
By the end of 2025, Tesla will have completed or will be nearing the completion of at least one more new factory. I would not be surprised if during that year Tesla is again concurrently working on at least two new factories.
I want to interject that if in the future Tesla can produce and sell a vehicle with a 60 kWh (usable) battery pack for under $28,000, it will expand its addressable market by many, many millions of customers. If I were in charge of Tesla marketing I’d be very tempted to call it the model Mars or just Mars. (The logo would be some sort of reference to the Mars transfer orbit, something at least vaguely akin to what the StarLink receivers now have on them.)
Jordon Giesige, YouTube The Limiting Factor host believes that if Tesla teamed up with BYD and used their blade batteries, Tesla could produce just such a vehicle “at roughly a 30% profit margin.” See his recent video for more details.
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