Tesla Production Sites By Model Assignment, Capacity: January 2021

Tesla, the world’s largest electric car manufacturer, is ready to produce well over one million battery-electric cars per year in 2022.

The company already delivered some 0.94 million in 2021 and reports that in Q4, it achieved an annualized vehicle production run-rate of over 1.22 million.

The road from there is only up, as Tesla says that the increase in volume is the highest priority – even higher than the introduction of new products. So there will be no new EV models.

The company entered the year 2022 with two electric car plants running at full swing (one in California and one in China) and two new plants on the cusp of production start (in Germany and in Texas).

Once approved, both of the new sites should ramp up production of the Tesla Model Y. Meanwhile, Tesla will be looking for a new location for additional EV production in the future.

The company highlights not only quick expansion, but also unprecedented profitability:

“Manufacturing is Tesla’s critical core competency. While EVs were often deemed structurally unprofitable due to expensive batteries, we were convinced that manufacturing innovation, purpose-built vehicles and factories would solve cost concerns. In Q3-2021 (the last widely reported quarter), Tesla achieved the highest operating margin across all volume OEMs. Cost (COGS) per vehicle dropped to ~$36,000 in both Q3 and Q4 2021. We believe our current projects, including large castings, structural battery pack, 4680 cells and many others, should help us continue to minimize our product cost.”

Let’s summarize what we know about the Tesla manufacturing plants.

Tesla Factory in Fremont, California – up to 600,000/year

Tesla’s Fremont factory has the potential to produce up to 500,000 Model 3/Model Y a year plus up to 100,000 refreshed Model S/Model X (both are ramping up).

Tesla said that the 2021 production results were a record high (but did not reveal the exact number), and would like to further increase to an even higher level.

“Fremont factory achieved record production in 2021. We believe there is potential to extend overall capacity beyond 600,000 per year. We aim to maximize output from our Fremont factory while ramping new factories.”

Tesla Giga Shanghai (Gigafactory 3) in China – over 450,000/year

According to the quarterly report, the Tesla Giga Shanghai plant has the potential to produce over 450,000 Model 3/Model Y per year (no change here). The plant remains the company’s export hub.

In 2021, the plant produced more than 470,000 EVs, including over 70,000 in December, which combined with other data, suggests a potential output of about 850,000 (12x 70,000).

“Production of both Model 3 and Model Y continued to ramp further throughout 2021. Local production is essential for reducing the cost per vehicle and improving the stability of the global supply chain. Gigafactory Shanghai continues to be our main export hub.”

Tesla Giga Berlin (Gigafactory 4) in Germany

Tesla Giga Berlin, under construction in Grünheide near Berlin in Germany, is behind its initial schedule. Originally, the production was expected to start in 2021.

Currently, Tesla is waiting for final approval to start series production of the Tesla Model Y, which at the start will be powered by 2170-type cylindrical battery cells.

“Equipment testing through the vehicle production process started late 2021. We are still in the process of finalizing the manufacturing permit from local authorities, which will allow us to start delivering German-made vehicles in Europe. These first vehicles will be built using 2170 cells.”

Tesla Giga Texas (Gigafactory 5) in the U.S.

Tesla Giga Texas, under construction in Austin, Texas, is expected to start series production and customer deliveries of the Model Y this quarter (after missing the 2021 target).

The cars will be equipped with 4680-type cylindrical cells and structural battery packs.

“Builds of Model Ys started in late 2021 at Gigafactory Texas. After final certification of Austin-made Model Y, we plan to start deliveries to customers”

The launch of the Tesla Cybertruck is delayed to at least 2023.

Tesla installed manufacturing capacity

  • Total of over 1,050,000 per year (up to 600,000 at the Tesla Factory and over 450,000 at the Gigafactory 3)

Production sites (vehicles/battery systems)

  • Tesla Factory in Fremont, California
    • Model S/X (capacity of up to 100,000 annually) Model S since mid-2012, Model X since late 2015
    • Model 3/Y (capacity of up to 500,000 annually now), Model 3 since mid-2017, Model Y since January 2020
    • Total output of up to 600,000 S/X/3/Y
  • Tesla Gigafactory 1 in Nevada
    • related to lithium-ion cell, module and pack production, energy storage products and drive units
    • nearby, there is also a Tesla Semi pilot facility
    • Tesla Gigafactory 2 in New York
      • Related to solar and some energy storage products
      • Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China
        • Model 3/Y (capacity of over 450,000 annually)
          Model 3 since late 2019, Model Y since December 2020
        • Tesla Gigafactory 4 in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany, Europe
          • under construction
          • production expected to start in 2021 (first Model Y)
          • Model Y “equipment test”
          • Model 3 previously “in development”, now no info
          • Tesla Gigafactory 5 in Austin, Texas
            • under construction
            • Model Y: “equipment test”, an additional production site in the U.S.
            • Cybertruck: “in development”, unveiled in late 2019, production after the Model Y, but no earlier than in 2023
            • Tesla Kato Road pilot facility in Fremont, California
              • related to Tesla’s 4680-type cylindrical battery cells
                target: 10 GWh/year cell production
              • Tesla Megapack factory in Lathrop, California
                • related to Tesla Megapack energy storage systems
                  target: 40 GWh/year
                • Unassigned models
                  • Semi: “in development”. Delayed to at least 2023 (but there might be a pilot deployment)
                    (it was expected that the Semi will be produced in Texas, according to Q2 2020 call, but it is unassigned yet)
                  • Roadster: “in development”, probably will be assigned to Fremont Factory (our guess)
                  • “Future Product” – undisclosed: “in development”, unassigned
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